The Chicago Journal

Banks across Europe witness stock drops, banking crisis looming over their heads

Banks On Friday, the European financial crisis took an unexpected twist, with bank stocks tumbling.

Investors had a role, acting on their lingering anxieties about previous bank crises spreading into the broader industry.

Stocks

The European Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index tracks the top 42 European and British banks.

It finished 3.8% lower.

Despite this, the index has dropped roughly 18% from its peak in late February.

Similarly, the London FTSE 100 index sank 1.3%.

Deutsche Bank (DB) shares fell 14.5% before rebounding to close down 8.5%.

UBS and Credit Suisse’s shares declined 3.6% and 5.2%, respectively.

Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s costs for protecting itself against a potential debt default have grown in recent days.

According to S&P Market Intelligence data, the bank’s five-year CDS hit 203 basis points on Thursday, the highest level since early 2019.

On Friday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared that there was no need to be concerned about Deutsche Bank.

“It’s a very profitable bank,” said Scholz.

EU leaders issued a joint statement in Brussels applauding the European banking sector for its stability and proper capital and liquidity levels.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, backed up the news, saying:

“The rising price of insuring CDS senior debt is weighing on Deutsche Bank, as well as other European banks, on concerns over the impact of rising rates on the wider economy and banks’ balance sheets.”

Read also: Meta will charge users for its subscription service

Interest rate hike

The European Central Bank kept its commitment to hike interest rates by half a percentage point this week.

Their decision was based on their conviction that inflation posed a greater economic threat than the present global financial crisis.

After data showing an unexpected increase in inflation in February, the Bank of England raised its main interest rate by a quarter percentage point on Thursday.

Market jitters, according to Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown’s head of money and markets, have also contributed.

“Worries about contagion are again rearing up even though more deposits appear to have been flowing into the German lender since the banking scare erupted,” she said.

“It is thought to have capital reserves well in excess of regulatory requirements.”

Analysts believe Deutsche Bank’s announcement on Friday that it will repay one of its bonds five years ahead of schedule jolted markets.

Such a move is typically interpreted by investors as proof that the company is financially strong and capable of repaying creditors on schedule.

US crisis effect

While investors were initially optimistic, the bankruptcies of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the United States, as well as Credit Suisse’s emergency takeover, harmed their confidence.

Investors may have construed the comments as Deutsche Bank’s anxiety about the banking industry’s future.

Some investors, according to Capital Economics deputy chief markets economist Jonas Goltermann, are concerned that banks are overcompensating.

Furthermore, he argued that the bank’s actions looked to have backfired.

According to a person close to the situation, Deutsche Bank’s decision to repay the bond ahead of time was planned rather than a reaction to recent market events.

Under the rules enacted in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the bond would have lost its eligibility as a sort of regulatory capital later on.

The bank, according to the source, replaced the bond in February by releasing a matching type of bond.

Similarly, Commerzbank (CRZBF) in Germany and Société Générale in France incurred considerable losses, with losses of 5.5% and 5.9%, respectively, at the end of the quarter.

Swiss banks remain wary

UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank, paid 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.25 billion) for its Swiss rival in an emergency takeover arranged by the Swiss government this week.

The move helped to calm markets following the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this month.

Yet, investors were concerned on Friday.

UBS and Credit Suisse failed following a Bloomberg report that the US Department of Justice was investigating their employees’ connections to help Russian oligarchs dodge Western sanctions.

The DOJ sent subpoenas to the individuals prior to UBS’s acquisition of Credit Suisse, according to the story.

Meanwhile, employees of major US banks are being examined.

According to CMC Markets’ Hewson, the DOJ probe into UBS contributed to widespread price weakening across European banks.

Credit Suisse’s dropped shares prompts acceptance of loan offer

Credit SuisseAnother big issue has developed following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank last week.

The Swiss National Bank announced its willingness to lend money to Credit Suisse in a letter.

Hours later, the megabank accepted the offer in order to persuade investors that it had enough money to be sustainable.

The news

Credit Suisse received a 50 billion Swiss franc ($53.7 billion) loan from the Swiss National Bank.

Investors in the collapsed megabank decreased their stakes by 30% on Wednesday.

The loan was made with the purpose of progressively expanding liquidity, according to Credit Suisse.

They released the formal statement below:

“This additional liquidity would support Credit Suisse’s core businesses and clients as Credit Suisse takes the necessary steps to create a simpler and more focused bank built around client needs.”

In addition to the central bank loan, Credit Suisse indicated that it repurchased billions of dollars in debt in order to reduce commitments and interest payments.

The financing package includes $2.5 billion in American bonds and €500 million (or $529 million) in euro bonds.

The bank

Credit Suisse, founded in 1856, is usually regarded as one of the most powerful financial institutions.

It is one of 30 companies certified as a “globally systemically significant bank,” including Bank of America, Bank of China, and JP Morgan Chase.

Asian equities fell significantly early Thursday.

They have rebounded from the lows brought about by Credit Suisse’s actions thus far, encouraged by the bank’s tenacity and commitment to repair public trust.

According to a joint statement published early Wednesday by the Swiss National Bank and Swiss financial market regulator FINMA, Credit Suisse met the strict capital and liquidity standards for banks critical to the broader financial system.

“If necessary, the SNB will provide CS with liquidity,” the statement said.

SVB’s impact

With the demise of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States late last week, investors were on alert.

Investors then dumped Credit Suisse stock, driving the bank to a new low as its largest shareholder appeared to rule out further investment.

According to Swiss officials, the issues of “certain” US banks do not pose an urgent risk to Swiss financial markets.

“There are no indications of a direct risk of contagion for Swiss institutions due to the current turmoil in the US banking market,” the authorities said.

No stake increase

After a capital increase in October, the Saudi National Bank has become Credit Suisse’s largest shareholder.

On Wednesday, Saudi National Bank Chairman Ammar Al Khudairy announced that the bank’s stake will not be raised.

“The answer is absolutely not, for many reasons,” said Al Khudairy. “I’ll cite the simplest reason, which is regulatory and statutory.”

“We now own 9.8% of the bank – if we go above 10% all kinds of new rules kick in, whether it be by our regulator or the European regulator or the Swiss regulator.”

“We’re not inclined to get into a new regulatory regime.”

Read also: Bank stocks become priority after fears of recession

What happened?

Credit Suisse was a big Wall Street participant prior to recent blunders and compliance issues.

As a result of the errors, the bank’s image among clients plummeted, and many key employees were let go.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, customers withdrew 123 billion Swiss francs ($133 billion) from the bank.

Credit Suisse later revealed a net loss of around 7.3 billion Swiss francs ($7.9 billion), signaling that the corporation was experiencing its greatest financial crisis since 2008.

In October, the bank announced a drastic reorganization plan that would result in the loss of 9,000 full-time employment.

Within its investment bank, the proposal also includes a wealth management branch.

Others questioned the restructuring, with the exception of Al Khudairy, who stated that the bank did not need any more cash.

Credit Suisse may not have enough capital to bear losses in 2023, according to Morningstar banking analyst Johann Scholtz, as funding costs rise.

“To stem client outflows and ease the concern of providers of wholesale funding, we believe Credit Suisse needs another rights [share] issue,” said Scholtz.

“We believe the alternative would be a break-up… with the healthy business – the Swiss bank, asset management, and wealth management and possibly some parts of the investment banking business – being sold off or separately listed.”

Impact

S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that the bank’s shares plunged 24% in Zurich on Wednesday.

In addition, they stated that the cost of getting credit Suisse default insurance had reached an all-time high.

The downturn expanded to other European financial equities, producing issues for some of the following banks in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, among others.

  • BNP Paribas
  • Societe Generale
  • Commerzbank
  • Deutsche Bank

The stock is down 8% to 12%.

Regardless of Credit Suisse’s problems, its assets of around 530 billion Swiss francs ($573 billion) pose a higher risk.

Andrew Kenningham, Capital Economics’ chief European economist, wrote:

“[Credit Suisse] is much more globally interconnected, with multiple subsidiaries outside Switzerland, including in the US. Credit Suisse is not just a Swiss problem but a global one.”

More problems

Despite its many problems, the Swiss bank is still being investigated.

On Tuesday, Credit Suisse suspended top executive pay after admitting to “serious errors” in financial reporting.

According to the bank’s annual report, the group’s internal control over financial reporting was deficient owing to a failure to anticipate potential risks to financial statements.

The bank is putting together a regulatory tightening plan.

Bank stocks become priority after fears of recession

Bank Analysts predict that major economies would either stagnate or enter a recession.

As a result, in 2023, investors will defy conventions by flocking to huge bank equities.

Banks

The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, which includes 42 major European banks, increased by 21% between January and late February.

It exceeded the Euro Stoxx 600, its larger benchmark index, to hit a five-year high.

Yet, the KBW Bank, which tracks 24 of the largest American banks, increased by 4% in 2023, well surpassing the S&P 500.

The two bank-specific indices have risen since their lows in October.

The economy

So far, the economic situation is less favorable.

The biggest economies in the United States and the European Union are expected to increase somewhat more than last year.

In the United Kingdom, however, output is anticipated to fall.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers believes that a rapid recession poses a risk to the United States at some time.

But, central banks were obliged to hike interest rates as a result of widespread economic weakness and unsustainable inflation.

In any case, it has aided banks by allowing them to earn higher profits on consumer and commercial loans as more money is deposited into savings accounts.

Although interest rate increases have kept big bank stocks stable, fund managers and analysts believe investor and analyst confidence in their capacity to weather economic storms because the 2008 financial crisis has also contributed to the situation.

“Banks are, generally speaking, much stronger, more resilient, more capable to [withstand] a recession than in the past,” said Roberto Frazzitta, the global head of banking at Bain & Company.

Interest rate increases

As major countries’ interest rates rose last year, governments took efforts to contain rising inflation.

The huge increases came after a period of cheap borrowing prices, which began in 2008.

The financial crisis devastated the economy, causing central banks to cut interest rates to historic lows in an attempt to stimulate consumption and investment.

Central banks have done nothing for more than a decade.

Investors seldom gamble on banks in an environment where lower interest rates imply reduced lender profitability.

Thomas Matthews, senior markets economist at Capital Economics:

“[The] post-crisis period of very low interest rates was seen as very bad for bank profitability, it squeezed their margins.”

But, the rate-hike cycle beginning in 2022, as well as a few indicators of weakness, have changed investors’ views.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned on Tuesday that interest rates may grow faster than expected.

Read also: Mary Daly thinks more hikes would be beneficial

Returning investors

The increased prospect of shareholder gains has converted investors.

According to Ciaran Callaghan, Amundi’s director of European market research, the average dividend yield for European bank shares is now 7%.

The S&P 500 dividend yield is 2.1%, while the Euro Stoxx 600 yield is 3.3%, according to Refinitiv data.

Also, European bank stocks have risen in the last six months.

According to Thomas Matthews, Capital Economics beat its American rivals because interest rates in nations that use euros are closer to zero than in the US, implying that investors have more to gain from rising rates.

He also said it may be attributed to Europe’s unexpected turn of events.

Wholesale natural gas prices in the region reached a new high in August of last year, but have since fallen down to pre-Ukraine conflict levels.

“Only a few months ago, people were talking about a very deep recession in Europe compared to the US,” said Matthrew.

“As those worries have unwound, European banks have done particularly well.”

Structural changes

At the present, the European economy is still struggling.

As the economy slows, bank stocks take a blow since bank profits are linked to borrowers’ capacity to repay loans and satisfy consumers’ and companies’ need for further credit.

Banks, on the other hand, are better positioned to sustain loan defaults than they were in 2008.

Authorities proactively enacted legislation mandating institutions to have a significant capital buffer in the event of a loss during the global financial crisis.

Lenders must also have sufficient cash (or fast convertible assets) to repay depositors and other creditors.

According to Luc Plouvier, senior portfolio manager at Dutch asset management firm Van Lanschot Kempen, banks have undergone structural changes in the last decade.

“A lot of the regulation that’s been put in place [has] forced these banks to be more liquid, to have much more [of a] capital buffer, to take less risk,” he noted.

Tesla and Apple face major China headwinds

Tesla: Apple and Tesla, two of the leading US tech firms, are currently experiencing problems with their stock values.

Because the two firms are facing significant challenges in China, investors are concerned.

Apple’s stock decreased by more than 3% as concerns about the iPhone lineup for the December quarter increased.

Tesla, however, saw a 12% drop on Tuesday when the company reported that deliveries missed the mark of analyst expectations.

China’s influence

Challenges in China may factor in the two tech giants’ stock values declining.

The country contributes 17% of Apple’s sales and 23% of Tesla’s income, making it a big market for both companies.

Daniel Ives of Wedbush Securities, offered his opinion on the companies’ issues.

“China is the heart and lungs of both demand and supply for both Apple and Tesla.”

“The biggest worry for the Street is that the China economy and consumer are reining in spending, and this is an ominous sign.”

He continued:

“In 2022, the worry was supply chain issues and zero Covid-related issues, 2023 is the demand worry and this has cast a major overhang on both Apple and Tesla, which heavily relied on the Chinese consumer.”

Tesla delivery

The share price of Tesla decreased as a result of the delay in vehicle deliveries.

Deliveries of cars fell short of expectations in the fourth quarter, falling to 405,278 from 427,000.

Both the supply chain and Chinese demand were factors in the drop.

During the entirety of 2022, Covid interruptions impacted Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory.

However, analysts have also voiced concerns about Chinese consumer demand.

“Tesla will point to supply disruptions and lockdowns as the main problem in China in 2022,” said Bill Russo, the CEO of Shanghai-based Automobility.

“While these are real headwinds, it cannot hide the fact that demand has softened for a variety of reasons, and their order backlog is 70% smaller than it was prior to the Shanghai lockdown.”

Shanghai saw lockdowns in the latter weeks of March 2022 as the authorities sought to contain an outbreak of Covid.

Headwinds

Investors are concerned that Tesla may reduce pricing to draw customers, which puts pressure on margins.

In October, Tesla lowered the price of the Model 3 and Model Y in China, returning to the 2022 pricing company had previously established.

Another obstacle for Tesla in China is the escalating domestic competition from companies like Nio and Li Auto.

Additionally, this year will see the launch of new models from domestic rivals at lower pricing.

“Tesla’s models have been in the market for a while and are not as fresh to the Chinese consumer as other alternatives,” offered Russo.

“What we are learning is, EV product life cycles are short as they are shopped for their technology features.”

“Buying an older EV is like buying last year’s smartphone,” he continued.”

“They need new or refreshed models to reignite the market. Just pricing lower can damage their brand in the long run.”

Read also: Prices of 2022: the highs and lows

iPhone factory problems

Investors are anticipating Apple’s fiscal first-quarter results, which will probably include the December holiday season.

The largest iPhone manufacturer in China, Zhengzhou, experienced a Covid incident in October.

Foxconn, the factory’s owner, placed restrictions.

By November, there had been numerous employee walkouts due to a salary dispute.

Foxconn tried to entice them back with incentives.

Since then, things have become more stable.

Additionally, according to Reuters, the factory was almost running at full capacity on Tuesday.

The incident exposed Apple’s reliance on China for iPhone production.

According to the tech titans, the facility was reportedly operating at significantly lower capacity due to the Covid ban.

Fears

According to Evercore ISI analysts, Apple had a $5 to $8 billion sales imbalance in the quarter ending in December.

However, according to Refinitiv’s estimate, the company may report a 1% yearly decline in revenue in the December quarter.

Investors who expected the iPhone 14 to do well have also expressed concern.

However, Apple is facing more than just supply chain issues.

China has modified its zero-Covid policy to reopen its economy.

But, widespread Covid-19 outbreaks in the country could affect iPhone demand.

IDC research manager Will Wong offered his opinion on the matter and stated:

“The key challenge is expected to be on the demand side, especially since resilient high-end consumers may have started to shift their spending to travel while some may have shifted their focus to medical supplies.”

“The shift in spending will pose a key challenge in the short term.”

Reference:

China risks loom over US tech giants Tesla and Apple as share prices plunge

The Federal Reserve influences 2022 stock market, Thursday market movement

The Federal Reserve: After more than a century, the Federal Reserve has long been recognized as a significant player in the stock market.

Through the 2000s, the central bank adopted unconventional policy measures, such as large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance, which boosted the institution’s reputation.

The policy tools

The Federal Reserve makes large-scale asset acquisitions due to emergency government debt and mortgage-backed securities purchases.

On the other hand, forward guidance refers to the Federal Reserve’s public statements on the direction its monetary policies will take.

The guideline includes the expected federal funds’ interest rate target before a policy change.

Inflation and economic landscape

Central bankers advised the populace to prepare for more difficult economic times as they faced inflation in 2022.

The attempts, according to experts, contributed to the decrease in the price of the S&P 500.

Professor of economics at Notre Dame University and former Federal Reserve economist Jeffrey Campbell said the following:

“I think they know they gambled and lost, and that they have to do something serious in order to get inflation back under control.”

“I fear that they took a gamble that inflation wasn’t too real a thing at the beginning of 2021.”

In 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times in response to inflation that was stronger than predicted.

The effects of higher rates may be felt by publicly traded companies, especially growth shares in the technology industry.

Cautious warnings

Since April 2022, the Federal Reserve’s asset portfolio has decreased by more than $336 billion.

According to experts, the cumulative effect of economic tightening is still unknown.

On Wall Street, there is a lot of hope that the central bank would change its mind and decrease interest rates.

At the same time, many financial gurus are advising caution.

Victoria Green, founding partner and chief investment officer of G Squared Wealth Management, stated the following:

“If you have somebody that has a thumb on the scale or has a decided advantage about what’s going to happen, whether we think good things or bad things are going to happen, it’s best not to fight that policy.”

Experts claim that central bank policy is just one piece of the puzzle.

Investor sentiment and “black swan” events have a significant impact on the direction of the market.

John Weinberg, a former policy adviser for the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, stated:

“Sure, don’t fight the Fed, but… don’t believe too much that the Fed is all powerful.”

Stock movement

Numerous businesses produced headlines on Thursday with their stock movement during the trading session around lunch.

Airline 

Airline shares fell due to the Thursday announcement of multiple flight cancellations.

Due to a harsh winter storm, the US American and United stocks fell 3.6% and 1.9%, respectively.

Both Delta and Southwest saw drops of 2% and 3%.

AMC Entertainment

The company’s shares dropped 7.4% after it proposed a reverse stock split to lower its debt and announced a new $110 million capital raise.

Its preferred stock shares increased by more than 75%.

Read also: Solar power found to have two benefits for users

CarMax

Following the most recent quarter’s earnings, the auto retailer’s stock value decreased by 3.7%, and revenue fell short of Wall Street projections.

CarMax generated 24 cents per share on $6.51 billion in sales instead of the analysts’ forecast of 70 cents per share on $7.29 billion in sales.

Micron Technology

Due to the dismal earnings and revenue for the quarter, the company’s shares decreased by 3.4%.

The revenue was attributed to a drop in demand, which is expected to last until 2023.

Additionally, Micron announced a 10% staff decrease for the future year.

Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia’s respective other semiconductor stocks declined by 7% and 5.6%, respectively.

Marvell Technology lost more than 4%.

MillerKnoll

After reporting earnings and revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 that beat forecasts, MillerKnoll saw a jump of more than 14%.

The corporation claims it reduced annualized costs by $30 to $35 million.

Even if just somewhat in the third quarter, these savings would be realized in the fourth.

Mirati Therapeutics

Shares of the pharmaceutical company increased by more than 5% after the Food and Drug Administration named its colorectal cancer treatment a “breakthrough therapy.”

Tesla

On Thursday, the company’s stock fell by roughly 9%.

The Tesla website claims that a $7,500 discount was offered on the Model 3 and Model Y automobiles that will be sent to the US before the end of the year.

The cars also include a free supercharge that is good for 10,000 miles.

TuSimple

After the stock lost more than 11% of its value, TuSimple announced it would remove 25% of its workforce.

The announcement would impact over 350 employees at the self-driving truck startup.

Tyson Foods

The manufacturer of meat and poultry closed the day with unchanged stock prices after The Wall Street Journal reported that the company intended to lay off hundreds of employees in 2019.

Tyson Foods’ corporate offices will consolidate in 2023.

Read also: Elon Musk sells giant chunk of Tesla shares again

Under Armour

On Thursday, the athlete wear company’s share price dropped by more than 2.3%.

Additionally, the business revealed that Stephanie Linnartz of Marriott International would become CEO next year.

References:

How the Federal Reserve affected 2022’s stock market

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: AMC Entertainment, Tesla, Micron, Under Armour and more

Huge rally in the stock market a good sign in October

A new month often opens up new opportunities for businesses, and October got off to a good start with positive news.

Despite growing concerns about the financial health of European banking giant Credit Suisse and weak economic data, the stock market rebounded early in the fourth quarter.

Stocks

The Dow jumped to 765 points (2.7%), the biggest gain since mid-July.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 gained 2.3% and 2.6%, respectively.

The third quarter and stocks ended in September last Friday, with stocks reaching a low milestone.

On Monday, however, all but one of the Dow’s 30 stocks finished higher, a sign of market volatility.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was the only stock not to reach the same heights as the others.

Investor concerns

Ongoing inflation continues to worry investors over the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes.

Many fear that attempts to contain price increases could send the economy into recession.

In the course of 2022, inventories dropped dramatically.

The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, CNN’s way of measuring stock market movements, continues to show Extreme Fear levels.

Monday’s market rally, however, could signal a perverse “bad news is good news” rally.

Meanwhile, fears of rising tensions at Credit Suisse (CS) could prompt the Fed to ease aggressive rate hikes.

Bond market investors rely on stress.

Treasury bonds and inflation

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has fallen in recent days.

Where it briefly rose above 4% last week, it fell to 3.66% on Monday.

Inflation also remains a problem.

However, if the Fed and other central banks are concerned that a troubled European bank could lead to another financial contagion, now is not the time to raise interest rates by a historic amount.

Last week, traders estimated there was a greater than 70% chance that the Fed would hike rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for the fourth consecutive session at its Nov. 2 meeting.

Today, the probability of a rate hike of this magnitude has fallen to 50%, with the probability of a more modest hike increasing by half a point.

The latest US manufacturing data could also prompt the Fed to reconsider how it should raise interest rates.

Economic progress

The economic nonprofit, the Institute for Supply Management, reported that the influential manufacturing index fell in August.

The index also fell below Wall Street forecasts.

Both can be seen as a sign that Fed rate hikes to slow the economy and reduce inflation are having the desired effect.

On Monday, Jim Baird, chief investment officer of Plante Moran Financial Advisors, released a report stating:

“The economy is slowing – a reality that is increasingly apparent in the manufacturing sector.”

“The good news is that there are welcome signs that prices are stabilizing.”

The price of oil and other stocks

On Monday, a rise in the price of oil boosted energy supplies, but it also brought bad news for consumers.

Chevron (CVX) was the highest share in the Dow, while the energy sector was the best in the S&P 500.

Oil stocks rose after reports suggested that the OPEC+ blockade on oil producers is considering a cut in production.

The cut should mitigate the recent steep drop in crude oil prices.

Investors will also be relieved that the British pound, which has recently fallen to record lows against the US dollar, has recovered after the new UK government abandoned plans to cut taxes on wealthier Brits.

However, a stronger pound could increase fears of rising bond yields and rising credit costs in the UK.

Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) was among the stocks that did not participate in Monday’s rally.

The company’s shares fell nearly 9%, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500.

Over the weekend, it also reported disappointing delivery and production figures in the third quarter.

On the other hand, Tesla’s rival GM (GM) recovered after posting positive sales in the third quarter.

Reference:

Stocks kick off October with a huge rally