The Chicago Journal

Donald Trump stays as a top GOP favorite for 2024

Donald TrumpDonald Trump made history as the first president, former or current, to be charged last week.

After much deliberation, the Manhattan grand jury reached its conclusion.

This is one of a number of high-profile Trump issues.

A surprising rally

One would believe that Donald Trump’s political ambitions are jeopardized by a slew of accusations leveled against him.

Yet, many Republican leaders have refrained from attacking him.

Instead, they have targeted Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who brought the charges against Trump.

Similarly, betting markets continue to imply that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee in 2024.

Improved prospects

The indictment tipped the globe on its axis, ushering in a one-of-a-kind situation marked by altering political realities.

Donald Trump’s popularity is most likely due to three factors:

  • Despite the indictment hanging over his head, Trump’s polling lead in the GOP primary for 2024 has increased in the previous month.
  • Republicans think the inquiries are driven by politics.
  • Most Trump supporters are indifferent about his odds in November.

Similarly, surveys from Fox News, Monmouth University, and Quinnipiac University indicate that Donald Trump’s chances in the Republican primary are growing.

In March, Trump had a double-digit lead in surveys.

Furthermore, the former president earned an edge over his closest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has yet to launch his campaign.

In February, Trump had a 12-point lead.

Divided sentiments

The Quinnipiac poll’s results were made public last week.

Just 18% of registered Republican voters believed Trump’s claims about a New York hush money scheme were true.

58% of people thought they weren’t.

The indictment may cause a shift in thinking, but it may not be as big as it appears.

The majority of Republicans, according to the Quinnipiac survey, do not believe Alvin Bragg is objective.

Virtually every Republican (93%) and the majority of people (63%), thought his case was politically motivated.

When it comes to any indictment, Republicans appear to be on Trump’s side.

According to a recent Marist College survey, respondents thought the multiple Trump probes were justified or a “witch hunt.”

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The 2020 elections

In addition to the Manhattan case, Donald Trump has been tied to the Capitol Riot.

Most Republicans believe his efforts to reverse the 2020 election result were not unlawful.

According to polls, the vast majority of Republicans feel President Trump’s actions were appropriate.

The majority of Americans thought Joe Biden won only because of voting fraud.

The bigger picture

Republicans’ notion that the cases are politically motivated is only part of the issue.

Another thing to consider is how Republicans see Donald Trump in comparison to the larger general electorate.

Republicans feel he is innocent, but his legal concerns will be a stumbling block in the general election because people believe the investigations are fair.

Polls suggest that agreement on ideology is more important than electability for Republican primary candidates.

A CNN survey found that Republicans and Republican-leaning independents preferred criticizing Biden over policy agreement by a margin of 59% to 41%.

Trump supporters were divided, with 61% believing that agreement on issues should take precedence over electability and 39% disagreeing.

The results indicate a significant shift from what occurred in the 2020 Democratic primary.

By March 2020, 73% of Biden backers had persuaded voters to choose electability above issue agreement.

In other words, Biden’s pitch to Democrats surpassed Trump’s pitch to Republicans.

A new hope

Even while most Republicans believe other possible contenders have a better chance of unseating Biden, Trump remains the favorite.

According to a February Marist survey, 54% of Republicans believe that someone other than Trump may help the Republican Party reclaim the White House in 2024.

But, Republican voters in 2023 may not have made a mistake.

Notwithstanding the expected electability challenges, Donald Trump appears to be developing a general election poll advantage against Joe Biden sooner in the 2024 cycle than he did in the 2020 cycle.

But, according to the same study, DeSantis outperforms Trump vs Biden, which is aligned with how most Republicans feel.